Friday, August 06, 2010


Growth data for second quarter is out. It's 6.2% yoy. With 5.7% in Q1, the growth of H1 is therefore 5.9%. GOI's target for 2010 ia 5.8% (BI's is 6.0%). Most likely, it's the latter that holds, if not surpassed.

Inflation in June and July has been higher than expected. As August/Sept will observe fasting month and eid days festivities, yearly inflation might also hit the upper bound (set at 6% by BI), hence a need for some tightening up.

As for employment, GOI expects unemployment to drop to 7.6%. With a growth target of 5.8%, that implies an assumption of 400,000 absorbtion per 1% growth. I guess we're not there yet.

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