Thursday, July 27, 2006
Oh my God.
1 The Jakarta Post is so lame in its web version. As I'm writing this, its website is still of yesterday's news. OK, I'll just tell you then. The Minister of Communication and Information, Sofyan Djalil told the press that the Government is thinking to ask private TV stations to merge. It is "a move [the government] believes will streamline the sector for healthier business competition and the development of regional stations". In Djalil's words, "National television stations should merge to create healthy competition and survive. With fewer stations, we could provide fairer frequency allocation". Oh, now I see. It's a matter of government incapability. Here's a suggestion: think about price.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Growth. Government’s target of 5.9 percent growth (revised down from 6.2 percent) this year is unlikely. We maintain our forecast of 5.4-5.7 percent. As for point estimate, it is close to 5.5 percent.
Employment. Unemployment increases. In February 2006 the rate of open unemployment is 10.4 percent, as opposed to 10.3 percent in February 2005. Labor force is close to 160 million. Fiscal expansion has not been helpful for job creation, as promised. SBY has been promoting his “New Deal” program, yet it is unclear.
Exchange rate and stock index.
Export. Export value increases. But the figure is illusive. That is, the main drivers of the “increase” are mining and agriculture which in turn benefit from higher international prices.
Expected policies. We still expect fiscal stimulus and stabilizing monetary policy. However, the government’s inability to spend is quite worrying.Fingers crossed.