Thursday, September 17, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
As known, the state budget has assumed an oil price of USD 60 per barrel. Now the price stands around USD 70 already. And might even increase in the near future, considering the world economic recovery.
Now the budget also assumes that every USD 1 increase beyond the assumed USD 60 would add Rp 0.1 trillion to the deficit. Now, if Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) is USD 65 per barrel (usually it is USD 5 below the world oil price quoted in US market) then there is an increase of USD 5 trillion on top of the assumed price. According to the elasticity assumption, it should add Rp 0.5 trillion to the deficit. But, why ask Rp 3 to 5 trillion?
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Of course. It's just a measure of production. Yet, that's the best we have now -- for again, measuring production.
We already started "green GDP" here and there, taking account of natural resource depletion and environmental degradation. Despite the rough proxies used, it's a good way to remind us that the business-as-usual production might be harmful to the environment.
But many people push it even more to measure happiness (or in general, well-being). So far I'm skeptical. Production is measurable. So is green production. But happiness? It might be measurable on individual basis, or at least household. You might even come out with measures like aggregare willingness to pay to proxy demand for something (including intangible goods) at community level. But pushing it to grand scale like national GDP will encounter serious aggregation problem.
One of those happiness measures found that the most happy people live in Bhutan. I, for one, don't want to live in Bhutan.
Hopefully Japanese people's expectation for changes turns out good. Otherwise, it's just a regime change but with even more populist, short-sighted policies.
Friday, September 04, 2009
So here's my take (figures and numbers aside). When a crisis struck, you deal with it with a non-normal treatment. Yes, you still need a system; but that system is only for emergency situation, hence a short term handling. When the situation is back to normal, you are also back to normal approach. You don't keep rebooting a computer when you only have a minor hiccup. When a bank is about to go astray, and with it it would take many others down, you're in a crisis situation. You need to make a quick decision. Calling all those House people for a late night consultation meeting is a waste of time.
But then you are using taxpayers money. No matter how urgent the situation is, you should keep remembering that it is not your money you're using to fight the fire. So make no mistake. Pour the water sufficiently, not overwhelmingly.
Now you're in difficult situation. Was it, the situation, systemic? Yes, no doubt. Were taxpayers money misappropriated? That one remains to be proven.
Thursday, September 03, 2009
It is true that the two major shareholders of the failing Bank Century are Pakistanis with British nationalities. But jumping into a news article with astrong title leading to an impression that all foreign owners are bad guys is a journalistic folly. We still remember that more than ten years ago, when banks money were drained out, it was Indonesians who stole the money and ran away. But no news was titled "Be Careful with Indonesian Shareholders".
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Scratching your head? Me, too.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Keio University, Tokyo, September 6-7, 2009
The Global Financial Crisis?
Wing Thye Woo, Warwick McKibbin, Yonghyup Oh, Anwar Nasution
The Political Business Cycle in Japan and Instability of Budget Deficits
Naoyuki Yoshino, Tetsuro Mizoguchi, Renee Fry, Ryuhei Wakasugi
Taxing Pirates: Is It Worth It?
Desiree Desierto, Young Joon Park, Iris Claus
Unconventional Policies of Central Banks: Restoring Market Function
Crisis Management: Difference between Japan and the USA
Technology Development and Employment in China
Fredrik Sjoholm, Nannan Lundin, Changwen Zhao, Bhanupong Nidhiprabha, Wei Zhang
The Different Impacts of US and Japanese FDI on Trade Patterns
Kwong-Chiu Fung, Alan Siu, Arianto Patunru, Prema-chandra Athukorala
The Impacts of Globalization on Employment and Poverty Reduction in
India: The Case of Emerging Big Shopping Malls and Retailers
Kaliappa Kaliraja, Kanhaiya Singh, Shoko Negishi, Yuenpao Woo, Maria Bautista
How Integrated are the East Asia Economies: A Comparison of Integration Indices
Yuenpao Woo, Bo Chen, Chia Siow Yue, Fukunari Kimura, Harry Wu
Experimental Economic Approaches on Trade Negotiations
Han Kyoung Sung, Shigeyuki Abe, Alan Siu
Avoiding Another Subprime-Type Crisis in Financial Markets
Makoto Yano, Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Doo Yong Yang