Bustanul Arifin offers his solution. For long run, do something on infrastructure, irrigation system (I agree) and "incentive system with macroeconomic support" (he's not clear on this, though). For short run, he mentions the availability of factors of production: fertilizers, pesticides, etc. I think all that is not a short run solution. Production is long run or at least medium term perspective, given the current situation. Based on my limited readings (here and also in a book "Ekonomi Kedelai di Indonesia" edited by Amang, Sawit, and Rachman 1996 and published by IPB Press), the cycle for soybean ranges from 3 to 5 months for maturity (assuming a stable warm weather). I stick with my suggestion: allow for more parties to do import, rather than just the privileged four. The removal of the 10 percent import duty was justified as a means to "tease" the comfort zone enjoyed by the big four (Cargill, Gunung Sewu, Teluk Intan, and Liong Seng). Next, expose them to more competition.
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Sukardo Ronaldo:
Aco, we'd like to know your further analysis to be published in media. So, your sharper and deeper analysis about this soybean politics might be useful for public enlightment and hopefully can be heard and taken into account by the panic decision makers in this country.
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