The stylized fact that lies behind this research is that there are areas which have follow traditional prescriptions for improving their "investment climate" but which have still seen rather poor levels of investment whilst there are others which have implemented rather distortionary policies but have built strong relationships between the government and the private sector which have been successful in stimulating investment and growth. Thus we have a hypothesis that certain types of relationship between the private and public sectors are an important driver of investment, perhaps even more important than the specific standard policy prescriptions in the literature
I shopped at <name of a mart> today. As displayed on the small screen at the cash register, I was supposed to pay Rp 16,675. But the cashier said "Rp 16,700, Pak". I protested and pointed on to the screen. She said, "Well, Rp 25 will go to charity, Sir". What was she thinking? That robbing someone's money for "charity" is okay? I was pissed.
[I]t's about time Indonesian politicians start to think in a systematic way about policy support for the poor that minimizes the incentives to the broader economy. I think this can be done -- for all its faults, especially as a program designed and implemented in such a short time, the cash transfer program was relatively successful in achieving such an objective. It's high time that we think of such programs, especially given the expected global food price hikes.
[T]here are far more effective ways to help poor nations of Africa and elsewhere speed up their rates of economic development and reduce the impact of malaria, Aids, and other devastating diseases. Probably the single most important step is to encourage much more market-friendly policies by African and other governments in poor countries. In addition, it would help to reduce, better still eliminate, tariffs by rich countries on the agricultural and other exports from developing countries, encourage more widespread use of DDT and mosquito netting in combating malaria (see my post on deaths from malaria on Sept. 24, 2006), and provide private and perhaps public subsidies to the development of new drugs that help fight diseases mainly found in poor countries.
Note: I'm cleaning up the files in my laptop. Found some old articles I wrote. I'll put some in this blog, whenever I have the time. The one below was written for a discussion on economic freedom in an event in Bangkok last year. A related, longer version was included in a volume published by Economic Freedom Network Asia.
On politics
As I gather thus far, there have been only two remarkable blunders by SBY this year: first on fuel prices and second, to a lesser degree, on Yusril Mahendra. SBY has been known to be highly indecisive. But at the few times when he is otherwise decisive, there is one of two things you would expect: he's totally sensible or he screws up. He was plain sensible to cut the unfair fuel subsidy a couple of years ago. Yet he recently screwed up this year by promising not to do that again whatsoever and whensoever even if the world oil price skyrockets. As a consequence, his men had to struggle hard with political acrobats just to cover up for such knee-jerk mumbo jumbo.
As for Yusril Mahendra, SBY – a generous and kind man indeed he is – is giving the recently dismissed minister a new position for the sake of giving him a new position; hence creating redundancy with the existing ones. Yusril, by the way, is a very talented politician and recently an actor, too – one might think of a high correlation of both; but the recent Indonesian film festival in Riau proved otherwise.
Of course SBY deserves some credits, too. His leadership in Bali conference on climate change is one – if forcing U.S. to co-sign is any indication. Second, he produced a record of his self-created songs – although I am not sure if this counts.
On the economy
Demand side has been alright (consumption and export being the prime movers of the economic growth), but supply side has not followed suit: red tape is still red, logistic costs still high, decentralization brings unexpected consequences, and local elections are chaotic, leading to expected negative impacts on the (at least local) economy. Furthermore, domestic savings are still higher than investment at the time when the government has been running budget deficit and trade surplus. That is, the economy is still highly inefficient.
Also important is the role of Bank Indonesia. Its populism has been increasingly alarming. The central bankers talked a bit too much this year about credits for SMEs, unemployment, etc.; and less about its most important objective: taming the inflation and more importantly, setting people's expectation about inflation (not the other way around: being driven by people's expectation). The core inflation has been higher than that of volatile group suggesting a less than effective job against inflation in the part of Bank Indonesia. Fortunately the inflation rate this year seems to fall within the BI target, albeit close to upper bound. Bank Indonesia has again lowered its policy rate. As happened previously, the banking sectors have not responded immediately. Risk and uncertainty are still the major factors behind this. One good thing is that Bank Indonesia and the government has established credit information system supposedly to reduce the risk and uncertainty between banks and borrowers. But the effectiveness has yet to be seen. Another policy from the government regarding this issue was land certification for SMEs which so far turned out less effective as not all banks recognized the certificate as legal collateral.
Internationally, the economy has been dealing a lot with crude oil price and the sub-prime crisis originated in the U.S. The first seems more serious, as it might impact the budget severely (but forecast or prediction should not exaggerate and should look at real other than nominal price). The second one is more of blessing in disguise. The economy was not hard hit by it, because the use of such financial instrument is still limited. And because capital market is not as dynamic (as for example in Thailand), it escapes good ratings and therefore financial investors' radar screen. But of course you don't want to stay behind in this modern financial era. Sooner or later, the capital market develops itself and becoming friendlier for derivative of derivatives like sub-prime mortgages. So better be prepared.
On social issues
The country was taken by surprise by a corruption allegation of Minister Rokhmin Dahuri. It became more interesting as it later dragged in big names like Amien Rais and SBY. But as usual in high politics, it did not take long before the issue was completely 'forgotten', following a melodramatic handshake between the actors. Trivial and unimportant issue like the alleged stealing of Indonesia's claimed folk songs like Rasa Sayange by Malaysians consumed more space in the mainstream media. In the meantime they, along with the police and the government in general, shied away from very sensitive issue like the attack of some militant group on Ahmadiyah followers; so much for democracy and religious freedom.
In international arena, Indonesia took parts, in fact a lead, in Bali climate change conference. Many considered it as a success. But the roadmap looks very general and is prone to repeat the same problem as Kyoto Protocols: costly coordination. As a starter however, Bali conference is to be commended, especially in the near-stalemate of Kyoto Protocol.
The other notable international participation is of course that in the SEA Games. Indonesia ranked fourth. Not too bad given all the existing conditions, despite that many were quick to judge that Indonesia's rather gloomy performance in sport is a reflection of its poor human development index. Apparently media's judgment was influenced by the recent UN report on HDI ranks. But such blaming is unjustified. Singapore whose HDI rank is the highest among the participating countries did not fare the first. Even Amartya Sen admitted that such index is extremely crude.
In Jakarta, significant issues this year involve power change from Sutiyoso to Fauzi Bowo who therefore inherits the same old problems, i.e. flood and chaotic traffic. Fauzi Bowo however chose street begging, busking, and vending problem as his first showcase. He planned to ban those activities, forgetting that the root of the problem was the very rigid labor market. Other problems involving labors such as the Nike controversy (termination of contract, massive demonstration, and then contract extension) shared the same culprit. But as in the national level, the labor law revision seems like a taboo. The parliament has even declared not to respond any call for revision.
Finally, it is noted that intellectual (or lack thereof) public discourse was centered on the upcoming general election. In particular, some groups of self-declared youth elements have claimed that it is the time now for them to run the country. Equally interesting is the response by the so-called older generation who claimed that the youths are still incapable. It is discouraging that Indonesia's politics is still in this level of discourse.
Hope next year will all be the better.
Country HDI Rank in the World SEA Games Gold Medals as of Dec 13, 2007 Singapore 25 38 Brunei Darussalam 30 1 Malaysia 63 45 Thailand 78 121 Philippines 90 34 Vietnam 105 59 Indonesia 107 38 Laos 130 4 Cambodia 131 2 Myanmar 132 1
Indonesia is a country very much dependent on rice. It has consistently been a rice net importer for a long time, except for a brief intermittent of self-sufficiency in late 1980s. Yet, resistance to importation is always strongly pronounced. As a result, government policy tends to bias against the majority net consumers of rice, a group dominated by the poor. This paper offers two explanations on the rice protection in Indonesia. First, it shows that the demand for protection is likely to be affected by the movement of real effective exchange rate. Second, it uses the logic of collective action framework to explain why the government opts for hurting the poor. In particular, the paper asserts that the lobby of net producers is stronger than that of net consumers, because the latter group relatively lacks of incentive to fight.
[T]he current economic system is such that one's [additional, I suppose] wealth can only be obtained at the cost of somebody else's.Well, that's what we call efficiency, my friends. You want to optimize and make use of everything possible. Is it going to be fair? Not necessarily. That's why you have compensation schemes. That's why you recognize binding constraints.
Every body, please dress casually! ... Imagine all delegates clad in formal business suits during the two-week long meeting. How much energy would we need to air-condition all conference venues?(Um, is she sure the hotels would turn off the AC when most of them conference people wear casual?)
Indonesia has a lot of eco-friendly clothes like batik made of cotton and natural-based materials...and introduced Obin who said:
[B]atik is energy-saving...And then she condemned cotton plantation (she forgot that she just promoted cotton batik) for T-shirt production. Then she implied that blue jeans are bad for workers producing them ... (maybe I'm wrong but most batik is dyed, no?)
[When asked by journalists if he has an intention to become the next BI governor] No way, I've got no intention like that. Look, my position is higher than BI governor, not to mention ministers. Burhanuddin Abdullah is no competition to me. I'm a professor, not a magic doctor who bribes. So don't you speculate...But these guys are so used to his sarcasm.
We have to admit that what the mainstream movement (sic!) wants now is to apply a social-democrat political system and social-market economic system [it would have been wonderful if the author spent time explaining what he meant by these two phrases and hence made this analysis more like an analysis, but no]. When a group of 50 activists [what makes activists special, anyway?] with different background [again, he could have explained his sampling; of course he didn't], only 4 agreed with pro-market approach, 2 with syariah, and majority 44 wanted social-market system...He need an introduction to statistics, really.
Frankly, I can't answer every time I am asked why an agrarian country like Indonesia has to import 3.7 million tons of rice, 1.6 million tons of sugar ...It's like asking why somebody like him who can write a book still buys a book.
