I feel sorry for the small cafes, kiosks, local pizzas, and so on. With people stay and work from home, many stop getting their coffee or sandwiches at the shops around the corner. Hope they can all cope up.
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
Queing for...
As noted, there have been queues for toilet rolls in Australia amidst the coronavirus outbreak. Woolies and Coles now dedicate special hour for elderly and people with disability.
But in the Amsterdam, people panic buy ... marijuana
And in the US, people panic buy ... guns
Crazy.
Toilet paper
Our toilet paper is running low. Unfortunately, the Covid-19 crisis brought panic buying with it. Now it is very hard to find toilet papers in stores. And I heard there are excess demands for other goods too: hand sanitizers, pasta, rice, flour, and maybe more soon.
There are signs on store shelves saying that each customer can only buy once package of toilet rolls (each pax has four rolls). No doubt such sign will extend to the other essentials.
As usual, there are opoositions to price gouging. Just go check your face social media. Chances are, you would come across people condemning shops that increase their prices amidst thsi crisis era.
Didn't history tell us: the best rationing system is price?
There are signs on store shelves saying that each customer can only buy once package of toilet rolls (each pax has four rolls). No doubt such sign will extend to the other essentials.
As usual, there are opoositions to price gouging. Just go check your face social media. Chances are, you would come across people condemning shops that increase their prices amidst thsi crisis era.
Didn't history tell us: the best rationing system is price?
Monday, March 16, 2020
Covid-19
I spent my weekend learning about Covid-19. In this era of information overload, we just need to be picky. There's so much junk out there. Yet, there are some useful stuff. Twitter can be useful - if you follow the right persons. Some experts are kind enough to provide helpful information, and there are nice services in Twitter that compile the tweets into a thread. Please lookup: @drjenndwod, @davidsinclair, @aikhwaja, @NAChristakis - and many others, you just have to judge yourself. From podcasts, I've been listening to CNN's Sanjay Gupta and ABC's Coronacast. Two latest podcasts from Sam Harris are also great, especially the one with Nicholas Christakis. For economists, VoxEU has published an ebook, edited by Richard Baldwin and Beatrice di Mauro.
I might also rewatch Contagion.
I might also rewatch Contagion.
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Adios, SBIs
Bank Indonesia is going to scrap the SBI papers (The Jakarta Post, 4/1). The SBIs are short term promissory notes used by the central bank as part of its open-market operations. Thus far, however, these certificates have served more as safe haven to many investors (and even banks) as it carries relatively low risks with more certain yields. Scrapping this will leave the investors with government debt papers - those with higher risks.
As SBI is no longer an effective tool to control the money supply, this move is justified. It obviously will help the central bank cut the costs of its market operation. However, as the alternative, ie the government debt papers, carry higher risks, banks would be more careful. As a consequence, some banks might hedge against the higher uncertainty by keeping interest rate high. These days Bank Indonesia has been urging banks to lower their interest rates, following the consecutive cuts in the central bank's policy rate. While this stands on a shaky ground for justification, the central bankers should realize that scrapping SBI papers might not be in-line with their other objective to reduce the interest rates.
On bonded zones regulations
The Jakarta Post today (4/1) reported the new regulations on bonded zones. The Ministry of Finance Regulation PMK 147/2011 and PMK 143/2011 have ruled that, among all, 1) bonded zones of less than 10,000 square meters are to be (re-)located in industrial estates, 2) 75% of output should be exported (up from 50%), and 3) firms in bonded zones can do subcontract except for early checking, sorting, final packing or packaging.
The Post reported complaints from business community saying that the regulations are too strict and might backfire to the ongoing practices. They claimed that relocation would mean high costs as they have to re-invest in new plants, etc. I agree. Why doesn't the government just limit point one above to new firms and let the existing ones stay where they are? The businessmen also complain about obligation to export 75% of their outputs. I don't think this complaint is well justified. In fact, the main idea of bonded zones is to facilitate export. So, I actually think it has to be 100%. As for the third point above, I don't think it's necessary to restrict sub-contracting. The firms know what's the most economical way of producing. And they know better than the government. If the production sees it more profitable to sub-contract part of the manufacturing processes out to other firms, then let them do it. The government can just focus on monitoring the flow of goods, namely export.
The Post reported complaints from business community saying that the regulations are too strict and might backfire to the ongoing practices. They claimed that relocation would mean high costs as they have to re-invest in new plants, etc. I agree. Why doesn't the government just limit point one above to new firms and let the existing ones stay where they are? The businessmen also complain about obligation to export 75% of their outputs. I don't think this complaint is well justified. In fact, the main idea of bonded zones is to facilitate export. So, I actually think it has to be 100%. As for the third point above, I don't think it's necessary to restrict sub-contracting. The firms know what's the most economical way of producing. And they know better than the government. If the production sees it more profitable to sub-contract part of the manufacturing processes out to other firms, then let them do it. The government can just focus on monitoring the flow of goods, namely export.
Monday, January 02, 2012
Picks from The Latest NBER Research (2012-01-02)
The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies
by Joseph E. Aldy, William A. Pizer - #17705 (EEE ITI)
by Joseph E. Aldy, William A. Pizer - #17705 (EEE ITI)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17705
Abstract:
In order to clarify ongoing debates over the competitiveness impacts of climate change regulation, we develop a precise definition that can be estimated with available domestic production, trade, and energy price data. We use this definition and a 20+ year panel of 400+ U.S. manufacturing industries to estimate and predict the effects a U.S.-only $15 per ton CO2 price. We find competitiveness effects on the order of a 1.0 to 1.3 percent decline in production among energy-intensive manufacturing industries, representing about one-third of the policy's impacts on these firms' output.
Abstract:
In order to clarify ongoing debates over the competitiveness impacts of climate change regulation, we develop a precise definition that can be estimated with available domestic production, trade, and energy price data. We use this definition and a 20+ year panel of 400+ U.S. manufacturing industries to estimate and predict the effects a U.S.-only $15 per ton CO2 price. We find competitiveness effects on the order of a 1.0 to 1.3 percent decline in production among energy-intensive manufacturing industries, representing about one-third of the policy's impacts on these firms' output.
==
Organization of Disaster Aid Delivery: Spending Your Donations
by J. Vernon Henderson, Yong Suk Lee - #17707 (PE)
Organization of Disaster Aid Delivery: Spending Your Donations
by J. Vernon Henderson, Yong Suk Lee - #17707 (PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17707
Abstract:
This paper analyzes how different organizational structures between funding and implementing agencies affect the quality of aid delivered and social agendas pursued across neighboring villages in a set disaster context. We model the implied objective functions and trade-offs concerning aid quality, aid quantity, and social agendas of different types of agencies. We analyze three waves of survey data on fishermen and fishing villages in Aceh, Indonesia from 2005-2009, following the tsunami. Different organizational structures result in significantly different qualities of hard aid, differential willingness to share aid delivery with other NGOs in a village, and differential promotion of public good objectives and maintenance of village religious and occupational traditions. This is the first time these aspects have been modeled and quantified in the literature. Some well known international NGOs delivered housing with relatively low rates of reported faults such as leaky roofs and cracked walls; others had relatively high rates. For boats, some had very high rates of boat "failure", boats that sank upon launch, were not seaworthy, or fell apart within a month or two. We also document how a social agenda of particular agencies to promote greater equality can be thwarted and distorted by village leaders, potentially increasing inequality.
Abstract:
This paper analyzes how different organizational structures between funding and implementing agencies affect the quality of aid delivered and social agendas pursued across neighboring villages in a set disaster context. We model the implied objective functions and trade-offs concerning aid quality, aid quantity, and social agendas of different types of agencies. We analyze three waves of survey data on fishermen and fishing villages in Aceh, Indonesia from 2005-2009, following the tsunami. Different organizational structures result in significantly different qualities of hard aid, differential willingness to share aid delivery with other NGOs in a village, and differential promotion of public good objectives and maintenance of village religious and occupational traditions. This is the first time these aspects have been modeled and quantified in the literature. Some well known international NGOs delivered housing with relatively low rates of reported faults such as leaky roofs and cracked walls; others had relatively high rates. For boats, some had very high rates of boat "failure", boats that sank upon launch, were not seaworthy, or fell apart within a month or two. We also document how a social agenda of particular agencies to promote greater equality can be thwarted and distorted by village leaders, potentially increasing inequality.
==
Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation's 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And
Why It Matters
by Richard Baldwin - #17716 (ITI)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17716
Abstract:
Revolutionary transformations of industry and trade occurred from 1985 to the late-1990s - the regionalisation of supply chains. Before 1985, successful industrialisation meant building a domestic supply chain. Today, industrialisers join supply chains and grow rapidly because offshored production brings elements that took Korea and Taiwan decades to develop domestically. These changes have not been fully reflected in "high development theory" - a lacuna that may lead to misinterpretation of data and inattention to important policy questions.
Abstract:
Revolutionary transformations of industry and trade occurred from 1985 to the late-1990s - the regionalisation of supply chains. Before 1985, successful industrialisation meant building a domestic supply chain. Today, industrialisers join supply chains and grow rapidly because offshored production brings elements that took Korea and Taiwan decades to develop domestically. These changes have not been fully reflected in "high development theory" - a lacuna that may lead to misinterpretation of data and inattention to important policy questions.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Right diagnosis, wrong prescription
From Kompas today (28/12) we read that Minister of Agriculture, Suswono, has a solution to Indonesia's low competitiveness in agriculture products. Rightly, he points out that the reason for the low competitiveness is high transportation costs due to poor infrastructure. So, again rightly, the country needs to improve the road infrastructure.
But, now comes the tricky part, he also says that the government is preparing "cheap car for farmers" program. It will sell a 700 cc energy efficient car at the price of Rp 60 million per unit. He believes this will help reduce the costs faced by the farmers - and hence logistics costs will go down, then competitiveness will improve.
Good intention, however, usually comes with unintended consequences. Imagine you're an average farmer. What would you do with such car? I would use it for many activities outside farming. Or I will resell it with some extra margin. Or I will just rent it out in daily basis. So, rather than increasing the productivity of agriculture sector, the car might be good for other things, which leads to lower-than-expected impact on the competitiveness of ag products.
The news also reports that the government is ready for the first 1000 units. Presumably, there will be follow up batches. I wonder if the money can be of better use should it be directed towards improving the road condition, or building railway access to the bulky ag products rather than "cheap car program". We, by the way, experienced a program like this before. It was called "people's car". And it was a major failure.
But, now comes the tricky part, he also says that the government is preparing "cheap car for farmers" program. It will sell a 700 cc energy efficient car at the price of Rp 60 million per unit. He believes this will help reduce the costs faced by the farmers - and hence logistics costs will go down, then competitiveness will improve.
Good intention, however, usually comes with unintended consequences. Imagine you're an average farmer. What would you do with such car? I would use it for many activities outside farming. Or I will resell it with some extra margin. Or I will just rent it out in daily basis. So, rather than increasing the productivity of agriculture sector, the car might be good for other things, which leads to lower-than-expected impact on the competitiveness of ag products.
The news also reports that the government is ready for the first 1000 units. Presumably, there will be follow up batches. I wonder if the money can be of better use should it be directed towards improving the road condition, or building railway access to the bulky ag products rather than "cheap car program". We, by the way, experienced a program like this before. It was called "people's car". And it was a major failure.
Thursday, December 08, 2011
Pick from The NBER Digest -- December 2011
ORGAN ALLOCATION POLICY AND ORGAN DONATION DECISIONS
Judd B. Kessler and Alvin E. Roth
The "priority rule," which grants priority on organ waiting lists to those who have previously registered as organ donors, can significantly raise the number of potential donors.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
In Organ Allocation Policy and the Decision to Donate (NBER Working Paper No. 17324), Judd Kessler and Alvin Roth find that an organ allocation policy known as the "priority rule," which grants priority on organ waiting lists to those who have previously registered as organ donors, can significantly raise the number of potential donors. Their results suggest that the priority rule, which is currently used in Singapore and which is being introduced in Israel, is a potentially powerful policy tool for encouraging donor registration.
The researchers devise an experimental game which captures some of the key features of the organ donation problem and collect data when students play this game. Each player begins the experiment with "kidneys" that may, with some probability, "fail" during the game. Players receive monetary compensation for each round of the game in which they remain alive. A player may "die" from "kidney failure" if he cannot obtain donated organs. He may also "die" during the game for other reasons - that creates a potential supply of donors whose "kidneys" may be assigned to still-living players who face organ failure. A player gives up some money if he registers to donate his "kidneys" in the event of death -- this captures what the authors view as the psychic cost of registering as an organ donor. A larger pool of potential donors conveys benefits for all players, because it raises the likelihood that if a player experiences "kidney failure" a replacement organ will be available.
The authors compare the effect of reducing this cost of donation, which in their game is a monetary cost, with the effect of adopting a priority rule. Both approaches increase the number of registered donors, but the "priority rule" performs at least as well as, and sometimes better than, an equivalent decrease in the cost of donation. The authors try introducing the priority rule after subjects have made donation decisions a number of times, as well as at the start of the game. In the latter case, the increased performance of the priority rule is even greater. With regard to actual policy design, Kessler and Roth point out that one advantage of the priority rule over strategies for compensating registered donors, and thereby reducing their costs of registering, is that the priority rule seems feasible and can be implemented without any additional costs to the system.
--Matt Nesvisky
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17324
Judd B. Kessler and Alvin E. Roth
The "priority rule," which grants priority on organ waiting lists to those who have previously registered as organ donors, can significantly raise the number of potential donors.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
In Organ Allocation Policy and the Decision to Donate (NBER Working Paper No. 17324), Judd Kessler and Alvin Roth find that an organ allocation policy known as the "priority rule," which grants priority on organ waiting lists to those who have previously registered as organ donors, can significantly raise the number of potential donors. Their results suggest that the priority rule, which is currently used in Singapore and which is being introduced in Israel, is a potentially powerful policy tool for encouraging donor registration.
The researchers devise an experimental game which captures some of the key features of the organ donation problem and collect data when students play this game. Each player begins the experiment with "kidneys" that may, with some probability, "fail" during the game. Players receive monetary compensation for each round of the game in which they remain alive. A player may "die" from "kidney failure" if he cannot obtain donated organs. He may also "die" during the game for other reasons - that creates a potential supply of donors whose "kidneys" may be assigned to still-living players who face organ failure. A player gives up some money if he registers to donate his "kidneys" in the event of death -- this captures what the authors view as the psychic cost of registering as an organ donor. A larger pool of potential donors conveys benefits for all players, because it raises the likelihood that if a player experiences "kidney failure" a replacement organ will be available.
The authors compare the effect of reducing this cost of donation, which in their game is a monetary cost, with the effect of adopting a priority rule. Both approaches increase the number of registered donors, but the "priority rule" performs at least as well as, and sometimes better than, an equivalent decrease in the cost of donation. The authors try introducing the priority rule after subjects have made donation decisions a number of times, as well as at the start of the game. In the latter case, the increased performance of the priority rule is even greater. With regard to actual policy design, Kessler and Roth point out that one advantage of the priority rule over strategies for compensating registered donors, and thereby reducing their costs of registering, is that the priority rule seems feasible and can be implemented without any additional costs to the system.
--Matt Nesvisky
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17324
Saturday, December 03, 2011
Mitigating the crisis?
Kompas today (3/12) reports that the government is preparing a mitigation scenario to anticipate the impact of the crisis of Eurozone on Indonesia. Good.
But some of the efforts listed in the newspaper might not be feasible. For example, budget absorption. The state budget aims a deficit of 2.1% this year. That translates into around IDR 150 trillion. The last updated data of government expenditure that I have shows by October the net spending totaled to positive IDR 4.8 trillion. Now we've entered December. I don't think the government can meet the deficit target - just like in the previous years.
Secondly, the news mentions about Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization. This is still a tall order. In the midst of the Lehman crisis, nobody could use it, due to small scale amount of fund and more importantly, the strict conditionality linked to IMF if you asked a bigger amount. Until CMIM is reformed further, it will not serve as a good shock cushion in the region. We still remember that Korea didn't get helped from Chiang Mai. They got it from US Fed.
But some of the efforts listed in the newspaper might not be feasible. For example, budget absorption. The state budget aims a deficit of 2.1% this year. That translates into around IDR 150 trillion. The last updated data of government expenditure that I have shows by October the net spending totaled to positive IDR 4.8 trillion. Now we've entered December. I don't think the government can meet the deficit target - just like in the previous years.
Secondly, the news mentions about Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization. This is still a tall order. In the midst of the Lehman crisis, nobody could use it, due to small scale amount of fund and more importantly, the strict conditionality linked to IMF if you asked a bigger amount. Until CMIM is reformed further, it will not serve as a good shock cushion in the region. We still remember that Korea didn't get helped from Chiang Mai. They got it from US Fed.
Friday, December 02, 2011
Our product is expensive. We demand yours to be equally expensive
Minister of Trade Gita Wiryawan, as quoted by Kompas (2/12) said that foreign products should not enter directly into "the heart of Java", namely Jakarta. Because, here is his reason: our Pontianak mandarin orange has to take a rough and long way to Jakarta leading to its expensive price. So foreign goods should also experience the same difficulty. The policy to do that is to send foreign goods to a quarantine located far from Java.
So, by Gita's logic, if our product is expensive, we should tell foreign products to be equally expensive. His solution is not to fix the root of the problem, i.e the poor infrastructure and logistics across regions in Indonesia, but rather to punish the more efficient albeit foreign products at the cost of domestic consumers' welfare.
Very bad, Minister.
Addendum: On the same newspaper, Chairman of Indonesia's Transportation Community Danang Parikesit offers a better solution: improve the transportation infrastructure. The Deputy Head of Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Trade Natsir Mansyur shares this view, namely to improve on the logistics. Way to go, gentlemen.
Addendum: On the same newspaper, Chairman of Indonesia's Transportation Community Danang Parikesit offers a better solution: improve the transportation infrastructure. The Deputy Head of Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Trade Natsir Mansyur shares this view, namely to improve on the logistics. Way to go, gentlemen.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Picks from The Latest NBER Research (2011-11-28)
The Euro and European Economic Conditions
by Martin S. Feldstein - #17617 (EFG IFM ME)
by Martin S. Feldstein - #17617 (EFG IFM ME)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17617
Abstract:
The creation of the euro should now be recognized as an experiment that has led to the sovereign debt crisis in several countries, the fragile condition of major European banks, the high levels of unemployment, and the large trade deficits that now exist in most Eurozone countries. Although the European Central Bank managed the euro in a way that achieved a low rate of inflation, other countries both in Europe and elsewhere have also had a decade of low inflation without incurring the costs of a monetary union.
The emergence of these problems just a dozen years after the start of the euro in 1999 was not an accident or the result of bureaucratic mismanagement but the inevitable consequence of imposing a single currency on a very heterogeneous group of countries, a heterogeneity that includes not only economic structures but also fiscal traditions and social attitudes.
This paper reviews (1) the reasons for these economic problems, (2) the political origins of the European Monetary Union, (3) the current attempts to solve the sovereign debt problem, (4) the long-term problem of inter-country differences of productivity growth and competitiveness, (5) the special problems of Greece and Italy, (6) and the pros and cons of a Greek departure from the Eurozone.
=====
Diversity and Donations: The Effect of Religious and Ethnic Diversity on Charitable Giving
by James Andreoni, Abigail Payne, Justin D. Smith, David Karp - #17618 (PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17618
Abstract:
The creation of the euro should now be recognized as an experiment that has led to the sovereign debt crisis in several countries, the fragile condition of major European banks, the high levels of unemployment, and the large trade deficits that now exist in most Eurozone countries. Although the European Central Bank managed the euro in a way that achieved a low rate of inflation, other countries both in Europe and elsewhere have also had a decade of low inflation without incurring the costs of a monetary union.
The emergence of these problems just a dozen years after the start of the euro in 1999 was not an accident or the result of bureaucratic mismanagement but the inevitable consequence of imposing a single currency on a very heterogeneous group of countries, a heterogeneity that includes not only economic structures but also fiscal traditions and social attitudes.
This paper reviews (1) the reasons for these economic problems, (2) the political origins of the European Monetary Union, (3) the current attempts to solve the sovereign debt problem, (4) the long-term problem of inter-country differences of productivity growth and competitiveness, (5) the special problems of Greece and Italy, (6) and the pros and cons of a Greek departure from the Eurozone.
=====
Diversity and Donations: The Effect of Religious and Ethnic Diversity on Charitable Giving
by James Andreoni, Abigail Payne, Justin D. Smith, David Karp - #17618 (PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17618
Abstract:
We explore the effects of local ethnic and religious diversity on individual donations to private charities. Using 10-year
neighborhood-level panels derived from personal tax records in Canada, we find that diversity has a detrimental effect on charitable donations. A 10 percentage point increase in ethnic diversity reduces donations by 14%, and a 10 percentage point increase in religious diversity reduces donations by 10%. The ethnic diversity effect is driven by a within-group disposition among non-minorities, and is most evident in high income, but low education areas. The religious diversity effect is driven by a within-group disposition among Catholics, and is concentrated in high income and high education areas. Despite these large effects on amount donated, we find no evidence that increasing diversity affects the fraction of households that donate. Over the period studied, ethnic diversity rises by 6 percentage points and religious diversity rises by 4 percentage points; our results suggest that charities receive about 12% less in total donations. As areas like North America continue to grow more diverse over time, our results imply that these demographic changes may have significant implications for the charitable sector.
We explore the effects of local ethnic and religious diversity on individual donations to private charities. Using 10-year
neighborhood-level panels derived from personal tax records in Canada, we find that diversity has a detrimental effect on charitable donations. A 10 percentage point increase in ethnic diversity reduces donations by 14%, and a 10 percentage point increase in religious diversity reduces donations by 10%. The ethnic diversity effect is driven by a within-group disposition among non-minorities, and is most evident in high income, but low education areas. The religious diversity effect is driven by a within-group disposition among Catholics, and is concentrated in high income and high education areas. Despite these large effects on amount donated, we find no evidence that increasing diversity affects the fraction of households that donate. Over the period studied, ethnic diversity rises by 6 percentage points and religious diversity rises by 4 percentage points; our results suggest that charities receive about 12% less in total donations. As areas like North America continue to grow more diverse over time, our results imply that these demographic changes may have significant implications for the charitable sector.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Picks from The Latest NBER Research (2011-11-14)
Substitution and Stigma: Evidence on Religious Competition from the Catholic Sex-Abuse Scandal
by Daniel M. Hungerman - http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17589
Abstract:
This paper considers substituting one charitable activity for another in the context of religious practice. I examine the impact of the Catholic Church sex-abuse scandal on both Catholic and non-Catholic religiosity. I find that the scandal led to a 2-million-member fall in the Catholic population that was compensated by an increase in non-Catholic participation and by an increase in non-affiliation. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest the scandal generated over 3 billion dollars in donations to non-Catholic faiths. Those substituting out of Catholicism frequently chose highly dissimilar
alternatives; for example, Baptist churches gained significantly from the scandal while the Episcopal Church did not. These results challenge several theories of religious participation and suggest that regulatory policies or other shocks specific to one religious group could have important spillover effects on other religious groups.
==
Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009
by Gita Gopinath, Oleg Itskhoki, Brent Neiman http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17594
Abstract:
We document the behavior of trade prices during the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-2009 using transaction-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. First, we find that differentiated manufactures exhibited marked stability in their trade prices during the large decline in their trade volumes. Prices of non-differentiated manufactures, by contrast, declined sharply. Second, while the trade collapse was much steeper among differentiated durable manufacturers than among non-durables, prices in both categories barely changed. Third, despite this lack of movement in average price levels, the frequency and magnitude of price adjustments at the product level noticeably changed with the
onset of the crisis.
==
Gold Sterilization and the Recession of 1937-38
by Douglas A. Irwin http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17595
Abstract:
The Recession of 1937-38 is often cited as illustrating the dangers of withdrawing fiscal and monetary stimulus too early in a weak recovery. Yet our understanding of this severe downturn is incomplete: existing studies find that changes in fiscal policy were small in comparison to the magnitude of the downturn and that higher reserve requirements were not binding on banks. This paper focuses on a neglected change in monetary policy, the sterilization of gold inflows during 1937, and finds that it exerted a powerful contractionary force during this period. The transmission of this monetary shock to the real economy appears to have worked through lower asset (equity) prices and higher interest rates.
by Daniel M. Hungerman - http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17589
Abstract:
This paper considers substituting one charitable activity for another in the context of religious practice. I examine the impact of the Catholic Church sex-abuse scandal on both Catholic and non-Catholic religiosity. I find that the scandal led to a 2-million-member fall in the Catholic population that was compensated by an increase in non-Catholic participation and by an increase in non-affiliation. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest the scandal generated over 3 billion dollars in donations to non-Catholic faiths. Those substituting out of Catholicism frequently chose highly dissimilar
alternatives; for example, Baptist churches gained significantly from the scandal while the Episcopal Church did not. These results challenge several theories of religious participation and suggest that regulatory policies or other shocks specific to one religious group could have important spillover effects on other religious groups.
==
Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009
by Gita Gopinath, Oleg Itskhoki, Brent Neiman http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17594
Abstract:
We document the behavior of trade prices during the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-2009 using transaction-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. First, we find that differentiated manufactures exhibited marked stability in their trade prices during the large decline in their trade volumes. Prices of non-differentiated manufactures, by contrast, declined sharply. Second, while the trade collapse was much steeper among differentiated durable manufacturers than among non-durables, prices in both categories barely changed. Third, despite this lack of movement in average price levels, the frequency and magnitude of price adjustments at the product level noticeably changed with the
onset of the crisis.
==
Gold Sterilization and the Recession of 1937-38
by Douglas A. Irwin http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17595
Abstract:
The Recession of 1937-38 is often cited as illustrating the dangers of withdrawing fiscal and monetary stimulus too early in a weak recovery. Yet our understanding of this severe downturn is incomplete: existing studies find that changes in fiscal policy were small in comparison to the magnitude of the downturn and that higher reserve requirements were not binding on banks. This paper focuses on a neglected change in monetary policy, the sterilization of gold inflows during 1937, and finds that it exerted a powerful contractionary force during this period. The transmission of this monetary shock to the real economy appears to have worked through lower asset (equity) prices and higher interest rates.
Monday, October 24, 2011
New comment note
Arianto A. Patunru, 2011. "Comments", a comment to Yung Chul Park and Chi-Young Son, "Renminbi Internalization: Prospect and Implications for Economic Integration in East Asia", Asian Economic Papers, 10(3): 73-4
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Crossing or Turning Point?
Got an email, kind of blessing. Significant change in life path is coming.
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Picked from The Latest NBER Research (2011-07-25)
1. Network Stability, Network Externalities and Technology Adoption
by Catherine Tucker - #17246 (PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17246
This paper investigates how the destabilizing of a social network may increase the scope of network externalities, using data on sales of a video-calling system made to an investment bank's employees and subsequent usage by these customers. The terrorist attacks of 2001 led potential customers in New York to start communicating with a new and less predictable set of people when their work teams were reorganized as a result of the physical displacement that resulted from the attacks. This did not happen in other comparable cities. These destabilized communication patterns were associated with potential adopters in New York being more likely to take into account a wider spectrum of the user base when deciding whether to adopt relative to those in other cities. Empirical analysis suggests that the aggregate effect of network externalities on adoption was doubled by this instability.
2. The Value of Honesty: Empirical Estimates from the Case of the Missing Children
by Sara LaLumia, James M. Sallee - #17247 (PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17247
How much are people willing to forego to be honest, to follow the rules? When people do break the rules, what can standard data sources tell us about their behavior? Standard economic models of crime typically assume that individuals are indifferent to dishonesty, so that they will cheat or lie as long as the expected pecuniary benefits exceed the expected costs of being caught and punished. We
investigate this presumption by studying the response to a change in tax reporting rules that made it much more difficult for taxpayers to evade taxes by inappropriately claiming additional dependents. The policy reform induced a substantial reduction in the number of
dependents claimed, which indicates that many filers had been cheating before the reform. Yet, the number of filers who availed themselves of this evasion opportunity is dwarfed by the number of filers who passed up substantial tax savings by not claiming extra
dependents. By declining the opportunity to cheat, these taxpayers reveal information about their willingness to pay to be honest. We
present a novel method for inferring the characteristics of taxpayers in the absence of audit data. Our analysis suggests both that this willingness to pay to be honest is large on average and that it varies significantly across the population of taxpayers.
by Catherine Tucker - #17246 (PR) http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17246
This paper investigates how the destabilizing of a social network may increase the scope of network externalities, using data on sales of a video-calling system made to an investment bank's employees and subsequent usage by these customers. The terrorist attacks of 2001 led potential customers in New York to start communicating with a new and less predictable set of people when their work teams were reorganized as a result of the physical displacement that resulted from the attacks. This did not happen in other comparable cities. These destabilized communication patterns were associated with potential adopters in New York being more likely to take into account a wider spectrum of the user base when deciding whether to adopt relative to those in other cities. Empirical analysis suggests that the aggregate effect of network externalities on adoption was doubled by this instability.
2. The Value of Honesty: Empirical Estimates from the Case of the Missing Children
by Sara LaLumia, James M. Sallee - #17247 (PE) http://papers.nber.org/papers/W17247
How much are people willing to forego to be honest, to follow the rules? When people do break the rules, what can standard data sources tell us about their behavior? Standard economic models of crime typically assume that individuals are indifferent to dishonesty, so that they will cheat or lie as long as the expected pecuniary benefits exceed the expected costs of being caught and punished. We
investigate this presumption by studying the response to a change in tax reporting rules that made it much more difficult for taxpayers to evade taxes by inappropriately claiming additional dependents. The policy reform induced a substantial reduction in the number of
dependents claimed, which indicates that many filers had been cheating before the reform. Yet, the number of filers who availed themselves of this evasion opportunity is dwarfed by the number of filers who passed up substantial tax savings by not claiming extra
dependents. By declining the opportunity to cheat, these taxpayers reveal information about their willingness to pay to be honest. We
present a novel method for inferring the characteristics of taxpayers in the absence of audit data. Our analysis suggests both that this willingness to pay to be honest is large on average and that it varies significantly across the population of taxpayers.
Influential papers
Just came across this ranking of top influential economic papers. In restrospect, I think I wasn't too far off the literature then, luckily. My senior undergraduate thesis ("skripsi") - hence long time ago - built on the works of Lucas (number 1 on the list), MRW (#4), and Romer (#5, #6). But to my surprise, the key reference of all these works (and hence mine), i.e. Solow's neoclassical growth model is not on the list.
Friday, May 06, 2011
RIP: Jamie Mackie
One of the most enlightened Indonesianists, Jamie Mackie passed away on April 21st, 2011.
Today The Jakarta Post runs a nice obit written by Thee Kian Wie.
I'm grateful to have known Jamie. He once commented on my draft paper. A rarity, for it was like a master giving a tap on a rookie's shoulder.
Rest in peace, Pak Jamie.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
A Pick from The Latest NBER Research (2011-04-25)
Exporting Christianity: Governance and Doctrine in the Globalization of US Denominations
by Gordon H. Hanson, Chong Xiang - #16964 (ITI)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W16964
Abstract:
by Gordon H. Hanson, Chong Xiang - #16964 (ITI)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W16964
Abstract:
In this paper we build a model of market competition among religious denominations, using a framework that involves incomplete contracts and the production of club goods. We treat denominations akin to multinational enterprises, which decide which countries to enter based on local market conditions and their own "productivity." The model yields predictions for how a denomination's religious doctrine and governance structure affect its ability to attract adherents. We test these predictions using data on the foreign operations of US Protestant denominations in 2005 from the World Christian Database. Consistent with the model, we find that (1) denominations with stricter religious doctrine attract more adherents in countries in which the risk of natural disaster or disease outbreak is greater and
in which government provision of health services is weaker, and (2) denominations with a decentralized governance structure attract more adherents in countries in which the productivity of pastor effort is higher. These findings shed light on factors determining the
composition of religion within countries, helping account for the rise of new Protestant denominations in recent decades.
in which government provision of health services is weaker, and (2) denominations with a decentralized governance structure attract more adherents in countries in which the productivity of pastor effort is higher. These findings shed light on factors determining the
composition of religion within countries, helping account for the rise of new Protestant denominations in recent decades.
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